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Forecasting Is Risky Business
A new forecast from Colorado State University predicts 17 storms will hit the Atlantic Basin this year...and nine of those 17 are expected to be hurricanes. Though not as severe as 2005's deadly season, which included Hurricane Katrina and 26 other named storms, this year's forecast has some energy traders preparing for the worst.That's because an active season has the power to not only devastate parts of the U.S. coastline, but to send oil prices to new highs as refineries halt production. And if another Katrina slams into the Gulf analysts say oil prices could hit 85 or 90 dollars for a short period of time.Prices like that could hurt sales at lower-end retailers including Wal-mart, Target and K-Mart. Customers would be forced to spend their discretionary income at the pump instead of in the stores.On the flip side? Construction related businesses like Home Depot and Lowes are the primary beneficiaries of hurricanes as homeowners look to rebuild.But while Wall Street prepares for the bad weather there's one question nagging investors, are the forecasters right? Despite last year's ominous predictions-- not one hurricane struck the U.S. coastline. If the risk for hurricanes goes up, even if it's only a perceived risk, consumers will feel the effects at the gas pumps.To watch the video from CNBC's Trish Regan, click the play icon in the video box.





